Legend
Crop cultivation
Climate
Future
Current
Expert
Modeling
A
Crop Selection
(I)
Sample: Cocoa, Maize, Beans, Avocado and Sugarcane
Crop location Data
(III)
Sources:
[GBIF, MAPSPAM, Monfreda]
Climate data
(II)
Baseline: Historic Climate Data (1970-2000) | Source: WorldClim
Current Conditions
Months
1
2
11
Total current monthly precipitation
Months
3
4
12
Monthly average current temperature
Crop Validation
Climatic parameters by crop
Future projections
data (2041-2060) (Source: CMIP6; scenario SSP5-8.5)
*Downscaling and bias correction
access_cm2
GCMs 22 access_cm2, etc...
B
For each pixel with cultivated crop production
Historical and projected climatic conditions
Climatic parameters by crop
Comparative Climate Advantage
CCA_i = P_future(climate|crop i) - P_future(climate|crop_ref)
Aggregate Analysis
Projected suitability vs Current suitability comparison
Existing crop suitable
Existing_suit(%) = ((CS_current - CS_future)/CS_current) × 100
Persistence indicator system production by pixel
Analysis of crop sustainability over time
C
Alternative system production by pixel
CS_current > CS_future
Current suitability higher than future
CS_current where CS_future > CS_current
Future suitability exceeds current
Additional parameters (M)
Portfolio of 23 most promising crops/varieties selected
Persistence indicator system production by pixel
Long-term sustainability analysis
Persistence(%) for pixel
Percentage of maintained productivity